A shipment’s arrival time affects decisions throughout the supply chain. Manufacturers schedule production around incoming materials, warehouses plan replenishment and retailers depend on deliveries to maintain availability. Transportation modelling can help us understand how well different transport arrangements support these needs.
One useful starting point is delivery reliability: how consistently goods arrive within the agreed delivery window.
Understanding Lead Time and Variability
Transport time is only one part of the time needed to move goods from a supplier to a customer. A shipment may also wait for collection, consolidation, terminal handling, the next scheduled departure or a delivery appointment.
Each stage introduces potential variation. A short delay at one terminal may cause a shipment to miss its onward connection, turning a minor disruption into a much longer wait.
Consider a hypothetical comparison. One transport service takes between one and three days, while another consistently takes two days. If the customer needs the goods in two days, the first service’s potential for faster delivery offers limited value when it also carries a risk of arriving late. The more predictable service may be easier to coordinate with production and replenishment.
The choice still depends on the product, delivery requirements and total cost. Reliability and speed both need to be assessed against the customer’s actual needs.
Connecting Transportation with Supply Chain Decisions
Uncertainty about arrival times can lead companies to hold additional inventory, order earlier or arrange urgent replacement deliveries. These responses should be included when evaluating a transport solution.
This also connects with Just-in-Time thinking. Toyota describes Just-in-Time through synchronised processes that produce what is needed, when it is needed and in the required quantity. Applied to transportation planning, this encourages us to examine how deliveries fit the rhythm of the receiving operation.
For example, a scheduled multimodal service could support regular replenishment if its departures, terminal operations and final delivery arrangements fit the customer’s requirements. Its suitability would depend on the performance of the complete chain, including the consequences of missed connections.
What Should a Transportation Model Examine?
To explore these relationships, a model should represent more than distances and average travel times. Relevant factors include:
- Departure frequency and collection cut-off times.
- Terminal handling, waiting times and available capacity.
- Variation in journey times and the risk of missed connections.
- Delivery windows and receiving schedules.
- Inventory requirements and the cost of disruption.
Scenario analysis could then test practical questions. Would an additional departure improve delivery reliability? Would coordinating terminal opening hours reduce waiting? How would a disruption affect the customer’s stock availability?
Relevance to LOBRA
CaaS Nordic’s transportation modelling work within LOBRA connects transport corridors, terminals and regional distribution from a supply chain perspective.
Delivery reliability provides a useful lens for this work. It helps frame how different corridor arrangements could support production, replenishment and customer service and what data would be needed to compare them.
The central planning question becomes: how consistently can the complete transport chain deliver the service that the supply chain requires?
Project number: 404191
